Something is Happening in Michigan... and Pennsylvania

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Polymarket Signals Newsletter
October 15, 2024

Last week, a report surfaced that Democratic internal polling had Harris “underwater” in Michigan, but Polymarket odds for the state hadn’t moved then. They have now. Harris has dropped from 73% to 53% in Michigan over the past week. 

There was also a move in Pennsylvania over the weekend, where Trump has now retaken a slight lead (🔮54% to win PA) following a rally Saturday at the site of his first assassination attempt.

  • Polling in Michigan has softened for Harris in the last week. Three of the last four polls in the RCP average have Trump ahead by 1-4 points. However Harris is still ahead in the Silver Bulletin forecast for Michigan, which uses a longer lookback window. 

  • War in the Middle East may have something to do with the move. Three percent of Michigan’s population is estimated to be of Middle Eastern background. A recent poll conducted by the Council on Arab-American Relations found that 29.4% of American Muslims plan to vote for Harris followed by 29.1% for Jill Stein. 

These swing state moves have given the lead back to Trump in the general election market. 

Massive Jobs Surprise Cools Rate Cut Odds

On Friday, the September jobs report came in with an upside surprise of 254,000 jobs added, an outcome which only had a 4% chance on Polymarket the day before. This robust jobs report has cooled expectations for an aggressive rate cutting cycle.

Disclaimer

Nothing in Poly Market Signals is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product.